A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
