Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
